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Markets end higher in June amid easing geopolitical tensions
Jul-03-2025

Indian equity benchmarks traded firmly and ended with a significant gain during the passing month amid signs of easing tensions in the Middle East following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Besides, RBI cut repo rate by a higher-than-expected 50 bps to 5.50% to prop up growth. Also, the RBI lower its inflation forecast at 3.70% for FY26, against 4% forecast made in April. It also cut CRR by 100 bps to 3% from 4%. Further, President Trump’s recent statement ‘America is going to have a very big trade deal with India’, kept the sentiments upbeat.

Some of the key factors during the month:

ICRA retains India's GDP growth forecast for FY26 at 6.2%: Rating agency ICRA in its Macro Update June 2025 has retained India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for fiscal 2025-26 (FY2026) at 6.2 per cent, assuming well-distributed monsoons and crude oil prices averaging around $70/barrel.

World Bank retains India's economic growth projection at lower level for 2025-26: World Bank has retained India's economic growth projection at lower level of 6.3% for 2025-26 due to pressure on exports emanating from global uncertainties, though India will remain the fastest growing major global economy.

India to become net exporter of energy in next six to seven years: Union minister Nitin Gadkari has said that India will become the net exporter of energy in next six to seven years. He noted that ‘Today we are the importer of the energy but within six to seven years we will be exporter of the energy’. Stressing that hydrogen is the fuel of the future, he said the government is encouraging alternative fuel and biofuel such as ethanol, biodiesel, electric vehicles, and hydrogen.

Decline in food inflation pulling down headline retail inflation, but core inflation edging up: Ratings agency CRISIL in its report has said that headline inflation based on the CPI fell to 2.8 per cent in May, 2025, which is a good omen for the economy. According to CRISIL, a decline in food inflation is pulling down the headline retail inflation, but core inflation (excluding food and fuel) is edging up.

Domestic passenger vehicle wholesales down 0.8% in May: The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) in its latest data has showed that domestic passenger vehicle wholesales were down 0.8 per cent at 3,44,656 units in May 2025 as compared to 3,47,492 units in the same month last year.

India’s unemployment rate rises in May: The government data showed that India’s unemployment rate for the month of May rose to 5.6% against 5.1% in April this year. During the same period, the unemployment rate (UR) among females has increased to 5.8% compared to the male UR of 5.6% at the country level.

Listed private non-financial companies reports sales growth during January-March: RBI’s recent data released showed that the sales of listed private non-financial companies grew by 7.1% during January-March quarter of 2024-25 as compared to 8% expansion in the previous quarter and 6.9% during the year.

India's extreme poverty rate declines sharply to 5.3% in 2022-23: India's extreme poverty rate declined sharply to 5.3 per cent over a decade from 27.1 per cent in 2011-12 even as the World Bank revised upwards its threshold poverty line to $3 per day.

Commerce Minister calls Swiss industry to partner in India’s growth story: Union Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal has invited the Swiss business community to be active partners in India’s journey towards becoming a $30-35 trillion economy by 2047.

India will certainly cross $825 billion exports in FY26: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said that the world trade is facing severe geo-political challenges, but India consistently emerged as winner in such times, and its exports of goods and services will certainly cross $825 billion in 2025-26.

BSE SENSEX Monthly Gainers

Company      

Last Price 

(June 30’25)

Previous Price

 (May 30’25)

Change 

(%)

Eternal

264.05

238.75

10.60

Trent

6219.15

5641.65

10.24

Bharat Electronics

421.70

384.60

9.65

Bharti Airtel

2009.40

1856.80

8.22

Ultratech Cement

12072.35

11197.25

7.82

  • Eternal remained the top gainers for the month of June on the Sensex. Eternal traded higher as private brokerage firms remained bullish on the stock amid the company's improving execution in the domestic food delivery space. Besides, Eternal has launched an electric rental bike fleet in Delhi NCR on June 05, enabling delivery partners to rent these vehicles for food deliveries. Separately, Eternal introduced ‘Retail stores’ and ‘Activities’ tabs in select locations on its going-out app, District, as part of efforts to reduce losses in the segment. The newly added ‘Stores’ section enables users to locate retail outlets offering apparel, footwear, accessories, and more.
  • Trent remained second in the list of gainers for the month on Sensex. Trent traded higher as its management in analyst and investor meet remained bullish over the company’s growth prospects. The management said Trent plans to grow its portfolio of in-house brands, increasing store density in select markets and continuing its expansion. The company has also set a long-term revenue growth target of 25 per cent. Trent is exploring category extensions such as beauty, innerwear, and footwear. Besides, it is focusing on improving return ratios while scaling up operations.

BSE SENSEX Monthly Losers

Company      

Last Price 

(June 30’25)

Previous Price 

(May 30’25)

Change 

(%)

Tata Motors

688.05

719.45

-4.36

Hindustan Unilever

2294.75

2349.35

-2.32

Tata Steel

159.75

161.00

-0.78

ITC

416.50

417.90

-0.34

Larsen & Toubro

3668.55

3675.75

-0.20

  • Tata Motors remained the top loser for the month of June on the Sensex. Tata Motors traded lower after its unit Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) shared a muted outlook for the current financial year compared to last year. JLR expects its EBIT margin for FY26 to range between 5% and 7%, significantly lower than the 8.5% margin reported in the previous fiscal. The company also projected free cash flow to be ‘close to zero’ this year, compared to the robust 1.5 billion pound it generated last year. Meanwhile, the company has launched the all-new LPO 1622 bus in Qatar.
  • Hindustan Unilever remained another loser for the month on Sensex. Hindustan Unilever witnessed some profit booking after recent gains. Recently, FMCG companies traded higher after the Centre lowered basic import tax on crude edible oils. The government reduced basic customs duty on crude palm oil, crude soy oil and crude sunflower oil from 20 percent to 10 percent. The decision, effective May 30, is expected to stimulate domestic demand, leading to increased import of palm oil, soy oil and sunflower oil, as well as lower edible oil prices.

The Nifty June expiry rollover is at 79.53% on Thursday compared to 79.10% on same day of previous expiry. The Nifty June rollover is higher than its three-month average of 78.09% and higher than its six-months average of 79.38%. The Bank Nifty June expiry rollover is at 75.75% on Thursday as compared to 79.29% on same day of previous expiry. The Bank Nifty June expiry rollover is lower than its three-months average of 77.11% and lower than its six-month average of 76.65%. On sectoral front, Telecom (85.63%), Capital Goods (83.85%) and FMCG (82.88%) stocks witnessed the highest rollover of positions in June expiry, while the Textile (72.68%), Oil and Gas (73.51%) and Infrastructure (75.21%) space witnessed relatively low rolls into the June series. In stock wise rollovers, highest rollover was observed in UPL (98.78%), Crompton (98.50%) and Titan (98.47%), while rollover activity was relatively low in LIC (60.97%), IREDA (68.76%) and Angel One (68.77%).
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