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Benchmarks likely to make gap-up opening on Monday
Aug-18-2025

Indian equity markets are likely to make gap-up opening on Monday amid optimism following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's announcement of GST reforms in his Independence Day speech. Traders are likely to take some support of S&P Global raising India’s long-term sovereign credit rating to BBB from BBB-, with the short-term rating upgraded to A-2 from A-3.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

India's exports to US rise 20% in July: The commerce ministry data showed that India's goods exports to the US rose 19.94 per cent to $8.01 billion in July while imports increased 13.78 per cent to about $4.55 billion during the month.

Forex reserves surge $4.74 billion to $693.62 billion: RBI’s data showed that India's forex reserves surged by $4.74 billion to $693.62 billion for the week ended August 8, 2025.

Jaishankar holds productive talks with South Korean foreign minister: External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has held productive discussions with South Korean Foreign Minister, Cho Hyun, on advancing bilateral cooperation in trade, manufacturing, maritime and people-to-people exchanges as well as new opportunities in AI, semiconductors, clean energy and defence.

India requests UK to fast-track process to operationalise trade pact: Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said that India has requested the UK to fast-track the approval process of the free trade agreement so that it can be implemented as early as possible.

India facing tough choices in responding to steep US tariffs: The think tank GTRI said that India is facing tough choices in responding to steep US tariffs - from negotiating or retaliating to diversifying export markets or offering trade concessions like ending Russian oil imports - but each option carries its own mix of benefits and risks.

On the global front: The U.S. markets ended mostly in red on Friday, following the release of mixed batch of U.S. economic data, which has led to some uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and interest rates. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump said that he and Russian President Putin had discussed land transfers and security guarantees for Ukraine, and had largely agreed.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks traded lackluster throughout the day and ended flat on Thursday with investors taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of the US-Russia talks. Elevated crude oil prices and significant foreign fund outflows also dented investors' sentiments. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 57.75 points or 0.07% to 80,597.66 and the CNX Nifty was up by 11.95 points or 0.05% to 24,631.30.

Some of the important factors in trade:

WPI inflation negative for 2nd month in July: Wholesale price inflation (WPI) stayed in negative territory for the second consecutive month at (-) 0.58 per cent in July, as prices of food articles and fuel saw deflation, even though prices of manufactured items increased.

FII selling continues for third straight session: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers for the third consecutive session, offloading equities worth Rs 3,644.43 crore on Wednesday, according to exchange data. 

Trump tariffs not to impact India's growth: S&P Global Ratings Director YeeFarn Phua said trump tariffs will not have any impact on India's growth, as it is not a trade-oriented economy, and its sovereign ratings outlook will continue to remain positive.

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