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Key gauges end marginally lower on Tuesday
Sep-30-2025

Indian equity benchmarks gave up early gains and closed marginally lower on Tuesday after a volatile session, marking the eighth consecutive session of southward movement due to relentless foreign fund outflows and caution ahead of the RBI's interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. 

Some of the important factors in trade: 

Moody’s affirms India’s long-term local rating at ‘Baa3’ with ‘stable’ outlook: Global rating Moody’s has affirmed India’s long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings and the local-currency senior unsecured rating at ‘Baa3’ with a ‘stable’ outlook on the back of robust economic growth and sound external position.  

India’s FTA with EFTA to come into effect from October 1, 2025: Representing a landmark in India’s global trade strategy, Union Minister of Commerce & Industry, Piyush Goyal has said that the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EFTA countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland), which was finalised in March 2024, will come into effect from October 1, 2025.

Recent GST reforms to spur market consumption, boost domestic: Minister of State (MoS) for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary has said that the recent GST reforms will spur market consumption and boost the domestic economy. He said the impact of these reforms will be known in the next four to six months. 

RoDTEP scheme extended till March 2026: The government has extended fiscal benefits under the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) scheme for exports for six more months till March 2026. The scheme ended on September 30 this year.

Global front: European markets were trading mostly in green despite uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and U.S. government shutdown fears amid a partisan deadlock in Congress over spending and healthcare leaves. Asian markets settled mostly higher amid increasing expectations of a U.S. Fed interest rate cut next month after recent data showed US consumer price inflation rose in line with estimates in August. 

Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 97.32 points or 0.12% to 80,267.62 and the CNX Nifty was down by 23.80 points or 0.10% to 24,611.10.     

The BSE Sensex touched high and low of 80,677.82 and 80,201.15 respectively. There were 17 stocks advancing against 13 stocks declining on the index.   

The BSE Mid cap index rose 0.04%, while Small cap index remained flat.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Metal up by 1.11%, Basic Materials up by 0.65%, PSU up by 0.60%, Auto up by 0.30% and Bankex up by 0.22%, while Telecom down by 0.93%, Realty down by 0.79%, Consumer Durables down by 0.78%, TECK down by 0.50% and FMCG down by 0.39% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Ultratech Cement up by 1.43%, Adani Ports &SEZ up by 1.41%, Tata Motors up by 1.18%, Bharat Electronics up by 0.96% and Bajaj Finance up by 0.76%. On the flip side, ITC down by 1.19%, Bharti Airtel down by 1.18%, Trent down by 1.13%, Titan Company down by 1.07% and Bajaj Finserv down by 0.93% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, Global rating Moody’s has affirmed India’s long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings and the local-currency senior unsecured rating at ‘Baa3’ with a ‘stable’ outlook on the back of robust economic growth and sound external position. It also affirmed India’s other short-term local-currency rating at P-3. It said ‘The rating affirmation and stable outlook reflect our view that India’s prevailing credit strengths, including its large, fast-growing economy, sound external position, and stable domestic financing base for ongoing fiscal deficits will be sustained’. It added these strengths lend resilience to adverse external trends, in particular as high US (Aa1 stable) tariffs and other international policy measures hinder India’s capacity to attract manufacturing investment.

It noted that India’s credit strength is balanced by long-standing weaknesses on the fiscal side, which will remain. Strong GDP growth and gradual fiscal consolidation will lead to only a very gradual decline in the government’s high debt burden, and will not be sufficient to materially improve weak debt affordability, especially as recent fiscal measures to reinforce private consumption erode the government’s revenue base. It further said India’s long-term local-currency (LC) bond ceiling remains unchanged at A2, and its long-term foreign-currency (FC) bond ceiling remains unchanged at A3. It added ‘The four-notch gap between the LC ceiling and issuer rating reflects modest external imbalances as represented by persistent, albeit narrow, current account deficits; a relatively large government footprint in the economy; and moderate predictability and reliability of government policies’.

The one-notch gap between the LC and FC ceiling reflects limited external indebtedness and the low likelihood of a debt moratorium, especially in the context of recent steps towards liberalisation of non-resident portfolio investment. It further said that India’s credit profile benefits from its strong growth potential, underpinned by a large domestic market and favourable demographics that have historically supported resilient, demand-driven expansion, and helped insulate the economy from external shocks. Even as real GDP growth moderated in the fiscal year ended March 2025 (fiscal 2024-25) to 6.5 per cent from 9.2 per cent in fiscal 2023-24, India has been and will remain the fastest growing G20 economy through at least the next two to three years.

It said ‘We project economic growth to be sustained at 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2025-26 as the government’s continued emphasis on capital expenditure, lower inflation and the consequent easing of monetary policy will support robust domestic consumption and investment’. The imposition of high tariffs by the US (currently at 50 per cent compared to 15-20 per cent tariff rates applied to other APAC countries) will have limited negative effects on India’s economic growth in the near term. However, it may constrain potential growth over the medium- to long-term by hindering India’s ambitions to develop a higher value-added export manufacturing sector.

The CNX Nifty touched high and low of 24,731.80 and 24,587.70 respectively. There were 28 stocks advancing against 22 stocks declining on the index.  

The top gainers on Nifty were Adani Ports &SEZ up by 1.66%, Ultratech Cement up by 1.65%, JSW Steel up by 1.61%, Tata Motors up by 1.49% and Hindalco Industries up by 1.35%. On the flip side, Interglobe Aviation down by 2.03%, ITC down by 1.36%, Bajaj Finance up by 1.17%,  Bharti Airtel down by 1.01% and Tech Mahindra down by 0.97% were the top losers.

European markets were trading mostly in green; UK’s FTSE 100 increased 4.51 points or 0.05% to 9,304.35 and Germany’s DAX gained 23.84 points or 0.1% to 23,768.90, while France’s CAC fell 35.57 points or 0.45% to 7,845.30.

Asian markets settled mostly higher on Tuesday tracking Wall Street’s gains overnight, despite uncertainty around Trump’s trade policies as well as concerns about a possible US government shutdown. A shutdown could start Tuesday midnight if Congress fails to reach an agreement and could delay releases of key US economic data, including closely watched employment data for September, construction spending and possibly international trade data for August. Chinese and Hong Kong shares rose on stimulus bets after a gloomy report on mainland factory activity, while awaiting fresh cues from China’s 15th five-year plan discussions. However, Seoul shares declined even after data showed that South Korea's industrial production rose 2.4% month-over-month in August 2025, the strongest pace in five months. Japan’s Nikkei dipped, led by tech shares, after a summary of opinions at the central bank's September policy meeting showed board members debated the feasibility of raising interest rates in the near term. Meanwhile, half-yearly portfolio adjustments ahead of the LDP leadership election as well as Japan's disappointing industrial output and retail sales figures also weighed on market sentiments. 

Asian Indices

Last Trade            

Change in Points

Change in %      

Shanghai Composite

3,882.78

20.25

0.52

Hang Seng

26,871.00

248.12

0.92

Jakarta Composite

8,061.06

-62.19

-0.77

KLSE Composite

1,611.88

0.93

0.06

Nikkei 225

44,983.00

-60.75

-0.14

Straits Times

4,300.16

30.18

0.70

KOSPI Composite

3,424.60

-6.61

-0.19

Taiwan Weighted

25,820.54

240.22

0.93
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