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Markets extend rally for third straight week on supportive global cues
Oct-17-2025

Indian markets extended their rally for third straight week and ended with gains of over 1.50% each in the passing week amid continued optimism around corporate earnings recovery, steady foreign fund inflows and easing domestic inflation. Some support also came with positive global sentiments amid hopes of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve later this month.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Retail inflation slips to 1.54% in September: Retail inflation, measured by the CPI, slipped to 1.54% in September 2025 from 2.07% in August 2025 due to favourable base effect and decline in inflation of vegetables, oil and fats, fruits, pulses and products, cereal and products, egg, fuel and light.

India's wholesale inflation cools to 0.13% in September: India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation cooled to 0.13 per cent in September 2025 from 0.52 per cent in August 2025, on easing in prices of food articles, non-food articles, fuel and coal.

Net direct tax collection rises 6.33% till October 12 this fiscal: The Central Board of Direct Taxes has said that net direct tax collection grew 6.33% to Rs 11,89,054.17 crore till October 12 this fiscal (2025-26) as compared to Rs 11,18,278.33 crore in corresponding period of previous year.

India's merchandise exports rise 6.74% in September: The commerce ministry data has showed that India’s merchandise exports grew 6.74% to $36.38 billion in September 2025 over $34.08 billion in September 2024. Imports jumped 16.6% to $68.53 billion in September 2025 over $58.74 billion in September 2024. 

Unemployment in India rises marginally to 5.2% in September: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) in its Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) has showed the unemployment rate among people aged 15 and above increased marginally to 5.2% in September.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex surged 1451.37 points or 1.76% to 83,952.19 during the week ended October 17, 2025. The BSE Midcap index losses 2.01 points to 46,360.28, while Smallcap index slipped 337.61 points or 0.63% to 53,040.96. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE Realty was up by 286.91 points or 4.12% to 7,252.22, S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods was up by 524.17 points or 2.59% to 20,755.49, and S&P BSE Consumer Durables was up by 1,446.89 points or 2.43% to 61,025.26 were the top gainers, while S&P BSE Information Technology was down by 805.83 points or 2.30% to 34,179.45, S&P BSE Capital Goods was down by 490.73 points or 0.71% to 69,061.86 and S&P BSE TECK was down by 111.22 points or 0.64% to 17,204.86 were the top losers.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty surged 424.50 points or 1.68% to 25,709.85. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Bank Nifty was up by 1103.60 points or 1.95% to 57,713.35, Nifty Next 50 gained 668.80 points or 0.97% to 69,356.05, and Nifty Mid Cap 100 increased 204.85 points or 0.35% to 58,902.25, while Nifty IT was down by 658.35 points or 1.85% to 34,950.70.

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 69,299.13 crore and gross sales of Rs 60,728.96 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 8,570.17 crore. They also stood as net buyers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 16,551.67 crore against gross sales of Rs 8,895.90 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 7,655.77 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net buyers, with gross purchases of Rs 2,039.90 crore and gross sales of Rs 68.80 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 1,971.10 crore.

Industry and Economy

International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) has revised upwards India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast by 20 basis points (bps) to 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal (FY26) compared to its earlier estimate of 6.4 per cent on the back of strong growth, offsetting the impact of US tariffs on Indian shipments. However, it lowered the growth forecast by 20 bps to 6.2 per cent for FY27. The Indian economy grew by 7.8 per cent in April-June -- the highest in five quarters -- before the disruptive US tariffs were imposed. The IMF further said global growth is projected to slow from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to 3.2 per cent in 2025 and to 3.1 per cent in 2026. 

Outlook for the coming week

In the passing week, key gauges witnessed significant gains on the back of continuous foreign fund inflows, buying in heavyweight stocks, and easing crude oil prices.

In the coming week, the BSE and NSE will conduct a special one-hour trading session known as 'Muhurat Trading' on October 21, 2025, scheduled between 1:45 pm and 2:45 pm. This one-hour special trading window, marks the start of Samvat 2082.

In economic releases, traders will be eyeing the Infrastructure Output, slated to be released on October 21. HSBC Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash, Foreign Exchange Reserves data are scheduled to be release on October 24. 

Investors will also keep eye on some important quarterly numbers to be released during next week. Hindustan Unilever, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Sbi Life Insurance, Coforge, Kotak Mahindra Bank would report their earnings in the coming week. 

On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world’s largest economy, United States (US), starting with Redbook YoY on October 21, Initial Jobless Claims on October 23, Fed Balance Sheet, Core Inflation, S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on October 24.

Top Gainers 

  • Nestle up by 8.56% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - Nestle traded with traction as its Q2 earnings beat Street expectations. The company has reported 10.57% Y-o-Y growth in its revenue from operations at Rs 5,643.61 crore driven by strong domestic demand and double-digit growth across most product segments. Meanwhile, it reported 17.38% fall in its consolidated net profit at Rs 743.17 crore for Q2FY26 as compared to Rs 899.49 crore for Q2FY25. 
  • Asian Paints up by 7.34% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - Asian Paints’ JV -- Asian White Cement Holding’s wholly owned subsidiary -- Asian White Inc. FZE has commenced commercial production at manufacturing facility in Fujairah, UAE, effective from October 12, 2025. The new facility will undertake manufacturing and exporting white cement and white cement clinker, with an initial capacity of 2,65,000 tons per annum.

Top Losers 

  • Infosys down by 4.52% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - Infosys witnessed profit booking after it reported 13.19% rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 7,364 crore for Q2FY26 as compared to Rs 6,506 crore for Q2FY25, driven by resilient margins, strong cash generation and steady deal momentum. The total income of the company increased by 9.05% at Rs 45,472 crore for Q2FY26 as compared to Rs 41,698 crore for the corresponding quarter previous year.
  • TCS down by 3.25% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - Investors booked some profits in the stock after it reported 1.39% rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 12,075 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 as compared to Rs 11,909 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. Total income of the company increased by 2.58% at Rs 66,666 crore for Q2FY26 as compared to Rs 64,988 crore for the corresponding quarter previous year.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 25,781.50 on October 17 and lowest level of 25,060.55 on October 14. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 25,709.85 with weekly gain of 424.50 points or 1.68 percent. For the coming week, 25,253.10 followed by 24,796.35 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 25,974.05 and further at 26,238.25 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded higher during the passing week amid a positive reaction to earnings news from financial giants Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Traders also kept an eye on any comments from President Donald Trump about U.S. trade with China.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Philly Fed Index plunges more than expected: The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity plunged to a negative 12.8 in October after spiking to a positive 23.2 in September, street expected a fall of 10. 

New York manufacturing index back to positive: The New York Fed said its general business conditions index surged to a positive 10.7 in October after plunging to a negative 8.7 in September, with a positive reading indicating growth.

US small business confidence weakens in September: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 2.0 points to 98.8 in September. Stret had forecast a score of 100.5. The reading remained above the survey's 52-year average of 98.

IMF raises global growth forecast as tariff impact less severe than feared: The IMF global growth for this year is now forecast a 3.2%, and the pace is expected to slow to 3.1% next year. The projection for this year was raised by 0.2%. 

US Consumer sentiment virtually unchanged in October: The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index edged down to 55.0 in October from 55.1 in September. The street had expected the index to slip to 54.2.

European Market

European markets garnered some gains during the passing week, as rising bets of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, and easing political concerns in France helped underpin sentiment.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Italy trade surplus grows in August: The monthly data from the statistical office ISTAT showed that the trade surplus rose to EUR 2.05 billion in August from EUR 1.34 billion in the same period last year. 

UK GDP rebounds 0.1% in August: The Office for National Statistics reported that real gross domestic product advanced 0.1 percent month-on-month in August, reversing a revised 0.1 percent decline in July.

German inflation rises to 2.4% in September: The final data from Destatis revealed that the consumer price index rose 2.4 percent year-on-year following a 2.2 percent increase in August. 

UK retail sales growth weakens in September: The British Retail Consortium said that retail sales grew 2.3 percent year-on-year in September, slower than the 3.1 percent increase in August. 

Eurozone trade surplus shrinks in August: The Eurostat reported that the trade surplus dropped to EUR 1.0 billion in August from EUR 3.0 billion last year. In July, the trade surplus was EUR 12.7 billion.

Asian Market

Asian markets traded mixed during the passing week as heightened concerns over U.S. banks' loan portfolios added to worries about the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and escalating Sino-U.S. trade tensions.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Japan core machinery orders sink in August: The value of core machinery orders in Japan was down a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent on month in August- coming in at 890.0 billion yen.

China's new bank loans rise in September: New yuan loans in China rose to CNY 1.29 trillion in September 2025, more than double August’s CNY 590 billion, supported by seasonal factors that typically boost lending in September.

China’s consumer prices fall more than forecast in September: China's consumer prices dropped 0.3 percent on a yearly basis in September. This followed a 0.4 percent decrease in August. Prices were forecast to fall 0.2 percent.

China’s producer prices slid in September: China's producer prices continued to decrease in September. Prices slid 2.3 percent year-on-year but slower than the 2.9 percent decline in August.

IMF raises South Korea’s 2025 growth forecast to 0.9%: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised South Korea’s 2025 growth forecast to 0.9%, citing a smaller-than-expected impact from recent US tariff measures and export resilience.
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