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Markets trade deeply in red on surge in crude oil prices amid middle east tensions
Mar-02-2026

Indian equity benchmarks made gap-down start of holiday shortened week amid losses in global equities as the US-Iran tension escalated. Over the weekend, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with other top officials were killed in a US-Israel joint military operation. As per a private report, the conflict will likely continue as the US President Donald Trump vowed to avenge the death of US servicemen who lost their lives in Iran retaliation. Sensex and Nifty were trading deeply in red with cut over a percent each on Monday amid concerns over surge in crude oil prices following the escalation of tensions in the key supply region. Some cautiousness also came in amid foreign fund outflows as Foreign Institution Investors pulled out money from Indian markets, as they were sellers of equities worth Rs 7,536.36 crore on Friday. 

Traders largely overlooked the government data which showed that India's economy grew by 7.8% during the Q3 of FY26, up from 7.4% in the corresponding quarter of previous year, under the new series of national accounts with 2022-23 as the base year. Also, gross GST collection increased by 8.1% to over Rs 1.83 lakh crore in February, led by higher growth in revenues from imports and improved domestic sales. On the global front, Asian markets were trading lower as escalating tensions in West Asia fueled risk aversion. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector in Japan continued to expand in February, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from S&P Global revealed on Monday with a Purchasing Manager Index score of 53.0. Moreover, South Korea is closed for Independence Movement Day.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 80340.41, down by 946.78 points or 1.16% after trading in a range of 78543.73 and 80632.55. There were 3 stocks advancing against 27 stocks declining on the index.

The only gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Metal up by 0.32% and Capital Goods up by 0.13%, while Oil & Gas down by 1.99%, Energy down by 1.75%, Realty down by 1.71%, Utilities down by 1.64% and Consumer Durables down by 1.59% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The few gainers on the Sensex were Bharat Electronics up by 2.33%, Tata Steel up by 0.38% and Bharti Airtel up by 0.18%. On the flip side, Larsen & Toubro down by 4.80%, Interglobe Aviation down by 4.14%, Asian Paints down by 2.92%, Adani Ports & SEZ down by 2.45% and Bajaj Finance down by 2.13% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, after revision of base year for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) calculation, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran has said that the economic growth projection is revised upwards by 20 basis points to 7-7.4 per cent for next fiscal year (FY27) from 6.8-7.2 per cent previously and the GDP size will comfortably cross $4 trillion-mark during the year. He added that based on current indicators, nominal GDP growth would be close to 11 per cent. The Economic Survey presented in Parliament in January had projected a growth rate of 6.8-7.2 per cent for fiscal year 2026-27. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the new series of annual and quarterly National Accounts Estimates with base year 2022-23, which replaces the previous series with base year of 2011-12.

Nageswaran also asserted that the Indian economy continues to maintain strong growth momentum, supported by broad-based activities. About the March quarter GDP growth, he said momentum in the economy is good enough to give a growth rate of 7.3 per cent or more during the period. He said all parameters are good enough to give growth rate of 7.6 per cent in FY26 as per the new series, and added that most of high frequency data are maintaining good momentum. On external side, he said there in merchandise export in January reflecting the US trade related uncertainties. Overall, he said the outlook for the economy continues to maintain strong growth supported by broad-based activity.

He further said favourable supply-side conditions, including robust Rabi sowing, comfortable foodgrain stock and easing global commodity prices, are expected to keep inflation low and stable. He also said fiscal consolidation will be on track in the light of 2022-23 base year GDP revision. With the nominal GDP being lower by roughly Rs 12 lakh crore, the estimated fiscal deficit for 2025-26 will now be 4.5 per cent, but other indicators, such as primary deficit, revenue deficit or effective capital expenditure or capital expenditure to GDP ratios are expected to remain unchanged.

As per the new series, GDP is likely to grow at 7.6 per cent during 2025-26, up from 7.1 per cent in the previous fiscal. MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg said the main reason to change the base year was that the number of data sources has increased, and there was a need to properly incorporate these new data sources into GDP calculations. Additionally, he said there have been structural changes in the economy over the past 10 years, with significant growth in the digital economy, leading to the availability of various new data sources, such as GST and vehicle-related data.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 24884.15, down by 294.50 points or 1.17% after trading in a range of 24645.10 and 24989.35. There were 6 stocks advancing against 43 stocks declining, while 1 stock remain unchanged on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Bharat Electronics up by 2.04%, Hindalco up by 1.47%, Tata Steel up by 0.45%, Bharti Airtel up by 0.22% and HDFC Life Insurance up by 0.14%. On the flip side, Larsen & Toubro down by 4.78%, Interglobe Aviation down by 4.10%, Asian Paints down by 3.08%, Adani Enterprises down by 2.64% and Adani Ports & SEZ down by 2.41% were the top losers.

Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Nikkei 225 slipped 774.27 points or 1.33% to 58,076.00, Hang Seng fell 425.54 points or 1.62% to 26,205.00, Taiwan Weighted lost 157.29 points or 0.45% to 35,257.20, Jakarta Composite declined 150.51 points or 1.86% to 8,084.98 and Straits Times was down by 89.22 points or 1.82% to 4,905.85, while Shanghai Composite was up by 0.13 points to 4,163.01.
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