HOME > MARKETS > ECONOMY NEWS
  ECONOMY NEWS
ECONOMY
Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India likely to be 90% of LPA: IMD
May-29-2026

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that June-September 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India is expected to be 90% of the long-period average (LPA) with a model error of 4%. It is lower from the 92% of LPA forecast by the IMD in April. While the Northeast is likely to witness normal rainfall this monsoon season, the remaining parts of the country may see below normal rainfall.

The LPA of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm. LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period of time, typically 30 to 50 years.

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the IMD, said ‘The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be below normal (less than 94% of LPA).’ If the monsoon season sees less than 90% of LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as ‘deficient’. 

About the monsoon’s onset over Kerala, Mohapatra said it is expected to happen in the next seven days. Typically, Kerala witnesses the onset of southwest monsoon around June 1, which marks the beginning of the southwest monsoon season in the country.

The IMD said that El Nino conditions are likely to be weak in June, and moderate to strong in September. Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. The emergence of El Nino conditions leads to less monsoon rainfall in the country. The weather department also highlighted that in June, above normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country.

  RELATED NEWS >>