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Stabilising geopolitical situation, falling crude oil prices lift markets higher in holiday shortened week
Jun-25-2026

Indian markets ended higher with modest gains in the holiday shortened week on stabilising geopolitical scenario and continued fall in crude oil prices amid easing supply concerns with tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz. Investors were optimistic over advancing US-India trade deal talks after India and US discussed pathways to conclude an interim agreement.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Eight key infrastructure sectors’ output growth slows in May: The Ministry of Commerce & Industry data showed that eight key infrastructure sectors’ output growth slowed to a seven-month low of 0.5 per cent in May 2026 due to a fall in output of coal, crude oil and refinery products. 

June sees softer growth in India’s private sector: The HSBC Flash India Manufacturing PMI eased from 55.0 in May to 54.5 in June, while Services PMI Business Activity Index fell to 57.3 in June from 59.8 in May. Besides, HSBC Flash India PMI Composite Output Index fell to 57.4 in June from 59.3 in May.

India’s merchandise exports rise during April-June 14, 2026: The Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has said that the country's merchandise exports rose by about 15% during April-June 14, 2026 despite global economic uncertainties. 

India’s GDP growth to be at 6.6% in FY27 amid energy stress: S&P Global Ratings in its report has lowered India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection to 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal FY27 amid the energy stress, expectations of a sub-par monsoon, and slowing global growth.

Sales growth of listed private non-financial firms returns to double digits in FY26: The RBI has said that the sales of listed private non-financial companies grew 10.1% in financial year 2025-26 (FY26), supported by growth in the manufacturing sector.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex surged 297.57 points or 0.39% to 77,100.47 during the week ended June 25, 2026. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE Realty was up by 148.52 points or 2.34% to 6,486.18, S&P BSE Healthcare was up by 898.13 points or 1.88% to 48,742.99, S&P BSE BANKEX was up by 955.11 points or 1.47% to 66,027.72, S&P BSE Finance was up by 180.55 points or 1.45% to 12,669.00 and S&P BSE Oil & Gas was up by 328.85 points or 1.24% to 26,807.35 were top gainers, while S&P BSE Metal was down by 1,533.11 points or 3.65% to 40,518.09, S&P BSE Capital Goods was down by 1,963.79 points or 2.35% to 81,637.17, S&P BSE Power was down by 170.46 points or 2.06% to 8,118.81 and S&P BSE Consumer Durables was down by 1,123.54 points or 1.84% to 59,943.32 were top losers.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty surged 42.90 points or 0.18% to 24,056.00. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Nifty Next 50 lost 157.10 points or 0.22% to 72,199.55, Nifty Mid Cap 100 decreased 721.80 points or 1.15% to 61,795.50 and Nifty IT was down by 96.00 points or 0.35% to 27,330.85, Bank Nifty was up by 491.30 points or 0.85% to 58,177.05.

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 80,418.45 crore and gross sales of Rs 72,970.02 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 7,448.43 crore. They also stood as net buyers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 26,004.55 crore against gross sales of Rs 7,922.65 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 18,081.90 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net buyers, with gross purchases of Rs 307.09 crore and gross sales of Rs 260.89 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 46.20 crore.

Industry and Economy

With an aim to deepen economic ties and strengthen bilateral trade, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has stated that India and the 27-member European Union (EU) are likely to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) by December 2026, with implementation likely between February and March 2027. On January 27, 2026, India and the EU announced the successful conclusion of negotiations for the 'mother of all deals'. About the agreement, Goyal said that ‘with almost zero duty, nearly the entire European market will be open to India.’ He also noted that Jamieson Greer, the United States Trade Representative, is scheduled to visit India for discussions on a potential trade pact.

Outlook for the coming week

Indian equity benchmarks closed the holiday shortened week in green on account on value buying in market heavyweight stocks. Also, constant fall in crude oil prices eased supply concerns in the markets. 

The coming week will mark the start of the new month, so auto sector stocks will be in action, announcing their monthly sales numbers for the month of June. On the economic data front, market participants would be watching out industrial production data to be released on June 29. Traders will be eyeing HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final on July 01. Investors will also be looking ahead to the HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final on July 03. On the same day, Foreign Exchange Reserves data is going to be out.

On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world’s largest economy, United States (US), starting with Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index on June 29, followed by Redbook, House Price Index, Dallas Fed Services Index on June 30, API Crude Oil Stock, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks on July 01, Unemployment Rate, Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders and Baker Hughes Oil Rig on July 02.

Top Gainers 

  • Interglobe Aviation (IndiGo) up by 11.72% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - IndiGo along with other Airline stocks traded with traction as global crude oil prices fell below pre-Iran war levels. The fall in oil prices has helped ease concern over higher fuel cost as the fuel cost accounts for substantial portion of operating expenses of airlines. 
  • Max Healthcare Institute up by 9.47% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - Max Healthcare Institute traded higher supported by value buying. Meanwhile, the company is reportedly planning to expand its operations in metro cities such as Delhi-NCR and Mumbai. Metro cities offer better pricing, higher insurance penetration and availability of specialist doctors, key growth drivers for healthcare sector.

Top Losers 

  • Infosys down by 10.06% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - IT stocks along with Infosys continued to remain under pressure following the sell-off among global tech stocks amid concerns of potential slowdown in corporate technology spending. Meanwhile, Infosys expanded multi-year collaboration with GlobalFoundries (GF) to deliver AI-led managed services across GF’s enterprise IT landscape.
  • Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) down by 5.77% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - TCS along with other IT stocks faced selling pressure as worries of lower technology spending sparked caution among investors. Further, Accenture lowered its revenue growth guidance and flagged revenue headwinds from West Asia.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 24,261.60 on June 25 and lowest level of 23,784.95 on June 23. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 24,056.00 with weekly gain of 42.90 points or 0.18 percent. For the coming week, 23,806.77 followed by 23,557.53 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 24,283.42 and further at 24,510.83 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded mostly lower during the week due to losses in technology stocks, as investors scrutinized growing debt-funded AI spending.

Some of the major developments during the week are:  

U.S. manufacturing activity rises in June: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI increased to 55.7 in June 2026 from 55.1 in May.

Vance says direct talks with Iran set foundation for deal to end war: US Vice President JD Vance said his talks with senior Iranian officials in Switzerland created a good foundation for a successful final deal.

US new home sales fall 7.3% in May: New home sales in U.S. dropped to a 580,000 annual pace in May, down 7.3% from April. 

Two-year note auction attracts slightly above average demand: Treasury Department announced the results of this month's auction of $69 billion worth of two-year notes, revealing the sale attracted slightly above average demand.

Trump says Iran pledges no tolls on Hormuz transit: U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran has assured Washington that it is not seeking tolls, insurance fees or any other charges from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

European Market

European markets garnered some gains in the passing week, as oil prices dropped to levels last seen before the war in the Middle East on easing geopolitical tensions and technology stocks gained following strong forecasts from US chipmakers Micron and Qualcomm.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

German Ifo business confidence strengthens: The survey results from the Ifo Institute showed that the business climate index rose to a three-month high of 85.6 in June, as expected, from 85.0 in the previous month.

UK retail sales recover in May: The data from the Office for National Statistics showed that retail sales grew by more-than-expected 1.2 percent on a monthly basis in May, in contrast to April's 1.0 percent fall. 

Eurozone private sector shrinks at slower pace: The flash survey results from S&P Global showed that the flash composite output index registered 49.5 in June, up from 48.5 in the previous month. 

Spain trade gap widens in April: The preliminary data from the Economy Ministry showed that the trade deficit widened to EUR 5.2 billion in April from EUR 3.9 billion in the corresponding month last year. 

German private sector downturn deepens: The flash data from S&P Global showed that the flash composite output index registered 48.0 in June, down from 48.8 in May. The score was forecast to rise to 49.9.

Asian Market

Asian markets traded mostly in red during the passing week as investors assessing the Middle East situation amid reports Iran and the U.S. have some disagreements with regard to certain points in the peace deal.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Japan private sector growth accelerates: Japan’s S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 52.5 in June 2026 from a final 51.1 in May. The reading was the highest since March, marking the 15th month of expansion in private-sector activity.

Japan Leading Index rises more than estimated: Japan’s leading economic index rose to 116.1 in April 2026, above the preliminary reading of 115.9 and March’s 115.4.

Hong Kong trade gap widens in May: Hong Kong's trade deficit widened sharply to HKD 44.2 billion in May 2026 from HKD 27.3 billion in the same month a year earlier.

Hong Kong inflation hits 13-month high in May: The annual inflation rate in Hong Kong rose to 2.0% in May 2026, from a 1.7% increase in the previous month and marking the highest reading since April last year.

South Korea consumer confidence improves in June: South Korea’s Composite Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 0.5 points to 106.6 in June 2026 compared with the previous month.
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