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Rupee unlikely to face continuous pressure in coming years: CEA V Anantha Nageswaran
Sep-25-2026

India’s CEA V Anantha Nageswaran has indicated that the rupee is unlikely to remain under continuous pressure in the coming years. He noted that the rupee's competitive real effective exchange rate (REER) has contributed significantly to net export growth, and India's trade agreements would provide further momentum to exports and create employment opportunities in export-oriented sectors. He highlighted India’s progress in electronics manufacturing, particularly smartphones, saying the country had gained significantly from the shift in global supply chains away from China. 

Nageswaran has stressed that India's objective should be to build resilience rather than pursue self-reliance in isolation, and the country should aim for ‘diversified abundance’. He suggested identifying areas of fragility and focusing the country’s resources toward building capabilities in strategically important sectors, rather than pursuing them for prestige. Underscoring importance of technology, he said that India needed to strengthen its small and medium enterprises and manufacturing capabilities in areas that are critical to global supply chains. He added that ‘This is what will lead us to the eventual goal of becoming strategically indispensable to the rest of the world by 2047’.

Amid lingering global uncertainties, he noted that unsettled relationship with the United States, state of energy market and also the absence of so-called AI play, which is currently the dominant discourse among investors' minds overseas, were the near-term headwinds for the Indian economy. On the balance of payments, he said it is something that will remain a challenge not just episodically but almost continuously. He suggested building buffers in both the private and government sectors for key commodities, including oil, for at least six months. Besides, he pointed that as imports rise and the country’s dependence on key commodities increases, competition for global capital will also intensify, while higher interest rates in developed countries could further increase this pressure. Hence, the steps taken by the RBI this year was an act of foresight.
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