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Markets likely to get flat-to-positive start amid fall in crude oil prices
Oct-12-2026

Markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start on Monday as crude oil prices fell on expectations of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and the central bank unveiled new currency-support measures. HCL Technologies Q2 results to be out later in the day. Also, market participants will be eyeing retail inflation figures to be out later in the day. 

Some of the key factors to be watched: 

RBI opens dollar window for oil firms, tightens forex bets as rupee nears record low: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will supply dollars directly to three state-run oil companies from October 12, in a bid to ease pressure on the rupee by shifting their demand away from the spot foreign exchange market.

Piyush Goyal says changed circumstances will shape final trade pact with US: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said the US and India announced in February that they had reached a framework for an interim trade agreement, but circumstances have changed, and the pact will be finalised accordingly.

Sitharaman meets Singapore Business Federation, discusses boosting bilateral business ties: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman met Singapore Business Federation (SBF) Chairman Mark Lee in Singapore and discussed strengthening business engagement between the two countries through targeted business matching, trade delegations, and cooperation in key sectors.

India forex reserves fall by $12.952 billion to $734.61 billion: The RBI data showed that India's forex reserves dropped by $12.952 billion to $734.606 billion during the week ended October 2. The overall reserves had dropped by $18.343 billion to $747.557 billion in the previous reporting week ended September 25.

Govt releases draft National Steel Policy 2047, targets 604 MT capacity: The government has released a new steel policy to boost India's crude steel capacity to 604 million tonnes by 2047, enhance industry competitiveness and address key import challenges.

On the global front: The US markets ended higher on Friday amid expectations of a strong earnings season. Asian markets were trading mixed on Monday amid concerns over the elevated West Asia crisis. 

Back home, snapping their two-day losing streak, Indian equity benchmarks rebounded strongly to close significantly higher, with the Sensex surging 879 points and the Nifty rising above 22,500 mark, supported by strong performance in IT stocks, particularly TCS after its Q2 earnings report. Reduced fears of an immediate escalation between the US and Iran, alongside some moderation in crude oil prices and global bond yields, also helped restore risk appetite. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 879.09 points or 1.23% to 72,472.33 and the CNX Nifty was up by 288.65 points or 1.30% to 22,520.45.

Some of the important factors in trade: 

India Inc's Q2 revenue growth to moderate to 16-16.5%: Crisil Intelligence in its report said India Inc's revenue is estimated to grow 16-16.5 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of the current fiscal (Q2FY27), moderating from 17.4 per cent in the preceding quarter.  

Retail securitisation jumps 42% to record Rs 1.46 lakh crore in H1FY27: Crisil Ratings in its report said India's retail assets securitisation market grew 42 per cent year-on-year to a record Rs 1.46 lakh crore in the first half of the current fiscal year (H1FY27) from 1.03 lakh crore a year ago, driven by a sharp rise in gold loan securitisation.

India on track to meet $1-trillion exports target in FY27 despite global challenges: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has expressed confidence that India would achieve $1 trillion in exports of goods and services during the current fiscal (FY27) despite a challenging global economic environment.

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