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Markets likely to make cautious start on Tuesday
Aug-20-2019

Indian markets cut most of gains and ended marginally higher on Monday on the back of late hour selling pressure in auto and PSU bank counters. Today, the markets are likely to make a cautious start as markets await a relief package from the government to revive growth. There will be some cautiousness with report that former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan has called slowdown in the economy very worrisome and said the government needs to fix the immediate problems in power and non-bank financial sectors and come out with a new set of reforms to energise private sector to invest. Traders will be concerned with Care Ratings’ report that India's jobs scene -- with unemployment at a 45-year high -- is looking gloomy with hiring activity slowing across most sectors. Also, some cautiousness may come with report that the Reserve Bank of India will sell five government securities worth Rs 17,000 crore on Friday. The move will suck out liquidity from the financial system. However, some respite may come later in the day with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s statement that corporate tax rate for companies with over Rs 400 crore turnover will be gradually cut to 25% and the government will support wealth creators. Traders may take note of a report that a top American lawmaker has urged the Trump Administration to resolve the trade tension with India as soon as possible, saying the dispute benefits none. There will be some buzz in the auto stocks with Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations’ (FADA) report that retail sales of passenger vehicles (PV) declined by 11% to 2,43,183 units in July as compared to the same period last year, hit by weak demand across the country. The non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), housing finance companies (HFCs) will be in focus as the government has removed the redemption reserve requirement for issuance of debentures by NBFCs, HFCs and listed firms, a move aimed at reducing cost for raising capital. There will be some reaction in agriculture stocks with government data showing that India’s foodgrains production is almost flat at 284.95 million tonnes (MT) in 2018-19 crop year due to fall in pulses and coarse cereals output even as the country harvested record rice as well as wheat crops.

The US markets ended higher on Monday amid optimism about a potential resolution to the trade war and a limit to its economic fallout. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Tuesday amid signs of progress on trade negotiations and speculation of government stimulus to shore up economic growth.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks pared most of the early gains and ended flat on Monday, with Sensex & Nifty ending higher just by 52 and 6 points, respectively. Markets made a fabulous start of the day, aided by Fitch Solutions’ statement that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates by 40 basis points before the end of the current financial year as monetary easing till now appears to be insufficient in boosting economic growth. Sentiments got boosted amid reports that private equity and venture capital investments in India crossed $8 billion in July -- the highest fund infusion in a month by PE/VC funds -- amid strong investment activity in infrastructure and real estate asset classes. But, in the last hour of the trade, key indices pared most of their gains, as the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) slashed its forecast for India's economic growth to 6.2% in the financial year ending next March from a previous estimate of 6.5%, warning it would be tough for authorities to engineer a turnaround. However, markets managed to settle in positive terrain, supported with RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das’ statement that the business community has been facing various challenges at the moment and growth is a matter of highest priority for the monetary policy committee (MPC) of the central bank. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 52.16 points or 0.14% to 37,402.49, while the CNX Nifty was up by 6.10 points or 0.06% to 11,053.90.
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