Markets likely to get gap-down opening on Wednesday

Indian markets closed lower for a 4-straight day on Tuesday as global growth concerns remained on investors' minds. Today, markets are likely to get gap-down opening tracking weakness in Asian peers. Investor will be looking ahead to the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel to start its 3-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of yet another rate hike of 50 basis points to check high inflation, in line with similar actions taken by other major central banks, including the US Fed. The decision will be announced on Friday (September 30). Traders will be concerned with continued foreign fund outflows. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net sold shares worth Rs 2,823.96 crore on September 27, as per provisional data available on the NSE. However, some respite may come later in the day as the income tax department said the net direct tax collection has increased 23 per cent to Rs 7.04 lakh crore so far this fiscal. Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) Chairman Nitin Gupta said the income and corporate tax collections were at a record high of Rs 14.09 lakh crore in 2021-22. Some optimism may come as Economic affairs secretary Ajay Seth dismissed the concerns over depletion of forex reserve as overblown and said India has fairly large reserve to tide over the current situation. Some support may also come as after three consecutive monthly declines, investment in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes rose to Rs 84,810 crore at the end of August on the back of a drop in oil and commodity prices. Meanwhile, capital markets regulator SEBI came out with a new framework for daily price limit for commodity futures contracts in a bid to resolve the difference in closing price at domestic exchange and global bourse. Non-bank lenders stocks will be in focus as domestic rating agency India Ratings upgraded its outlook on the non-bank lenders to neutral from improving on better collection efficiencies and asset growth in the sector. It, however, said that liability management is key for managing margins and loan growth for non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies (HFCs). There will be some reaction in steel industry stocks as the commerce ministry recommended imposition of anti-dumping duty on Chinese steel tubes and pipes for five years to guard domestic players from cheap imports from the neighbouring country. The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has recommended the duty on imports of stainless-steel seamless tubes and pipes from China after concluding in its probe that the product has been exported at dumped prices into India, which impacted the domestic industry.

The US markets ended mostly lower on Tuesday on worries about super aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening, trading under its June trough and leaving investors appraising how much further stocks would have to fall before stabilizing. Asian markets are trading in red on Wednesday following overnight weakness on Wall Street.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks swung between gains and losses throughout the day and ended flat with negative bias on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of a key meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee due this week. The indices started the day in green, as sentiments got boost as Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said the Indian economy is showing resilience and on the path to recovery. He added that private demand and the services sector are doing better than expected. Traders took note of report that economic grouping OECD in a report retained the GDP growth projections for India at 6.9 per cent for the current financial year despite the global economy losing momentum in wake of the Russia-Ukraine war. However, key gauges went into negative territory in the late morning deals as traders turned cautious as Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said some people do also speak that a falling rupee also helps exports. Whether it does or doesn’t, theoretically it may, but in today’s condition, with recession outside and demand not really as adequately as it should be, even a fall in the rupee may or may not help our exports. We are conscious about these basic facts. But, key indices once again entered into green terrain in afternoon deals, taking support from report that government will extend again the validity of the current foreign trade policy (FTP), which provides a road map for boosting external commerce in goods and services, by six months through March 31, 2023. The decision was taken after demands from various industry associations and state-backed export promotion councils due to the uncertain external environment. However, markets failed to hold gains and ended in the flat territory, as investors remained concerned over persistent foreign fund outflows. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market, offloading shares worth Rs 5,101.30 crore on Monday, according to stock exchange data. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 37.70 points or 0.07% to 57,107.52 and the CNX Nifty was down by 8.90 points or 0.05% to 17,007.40.