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India may receive above normal rainfall this season: IMD
Aug-25-2016

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stuck to its initial forecast of above normal rainfall this season as the La Nina phenomena, which gives a boost to Southwest Monsoon and was expected to give a good rainfall in September, has been delayed. IMD has made a forecast of 106 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with the model error of plus or minus four per cent.

IMD stated that as far as India is considered the El Nino which was harmful to the Indian monsoon has faded and reached a neutral level. In the initial stages they were expecting La Nina to start, but it has been delayed now. However, they refused to make any amends to the forecast. The La Nina was to start by August-September, but the cooling of ocean surface temperature is taking a longer time for the phenomenon to occur. As per the initial forecast, September was to receive excess rains due to this phenomenon.

El Nino is the unusual warming of sea-surface Pacific waters off the South American coast. La Nina is the positive phase of the El Nino and is associated with cooler than average sea surface temperatures. As per the IMD parameter rainfall between 96-104 percent of LPA is considered as normal rainfall, between 104-110 percent is considered as above normal and above 110 percent of LPA is considered as excess.

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